Stop Waiting for November. Start Preparing for It.
Photo Credit: Kelly Brown
Originally published 30 July 2026. Updated 8 August 2026 to reflect the latest Reserve Bank monetary policy, inflation, employment and economic data.
Should You Wait Until After the Election to Make Your Next Property Decision?
Within four days of each other, both New Zealand and the United States will head to the polls; two closely connected economies with deep trade, investment and cultural ties.
For many property buyers and vendors, the instinct will often be to wait.
The evidence suggests preparation may be the better strategy.
History shows that elections tend to influence confidence more than value, activity more than pricing. Understanding that distinction can make a meaningful difference to the decisions you make over the coming months.
For property markets, the significance is less about which party wins and more about what the combination of uncertainty does to decision-making. Two major elections in close succession means a sustained period of wait-and-watch sentiment that stretches from now through to late November and potentially beyond, if either result produces a complex or contested outcome.
For vendors considering their timeline, this is worth understanding. The window between now and late October represents the clearest air before that uncertainty peaks. For buyers — particularly those with interests or connections across both markets — understanding the interplay between US and NZ policy directions may shape both the timing and structure of their next acquisition.
What the data shows
The instinct to wait is understandable. But the data tells a different story.
Research across multiple election cycles — in New Zealand and globally — points to a consistent finding. Elections affect sales volumes more than they affect prices.
Buyers and sellers become cautious. Activity slows. The market enters a wait-and-watch mode that can feel significant when you are in the middle of it. But the underlying value of well-positioned property does not tend to move meaningfully because of an election result.
A detailed analysis of Grey Lynn (Auckland) property sales across nine New Zealand general elections — from 1996 through to 2023 — found no consistent election effect on prices. What it found was fewer transactions in the lead-up, followed by a return to activity once the result was known.
Globally, the picture is similar. After nine of the last eleven US presidential elections, home sales increased in the year following the election. The pause is real. The permanent effect on values is not.
The 2023 lesson
New Zealand's last election is instructive and worth examining carefully.
The National-led coalition's victory in late 2023 generated genuine optimism. Sentiment lifted. Property values responded in the early months of 2024, with activity picking up across major markets.
Then the fundamentals caught up. Interest rate cuts proved slower to arrive than the market had anticipated. Labour market confidence softened. The sentiment-driven growth faded — not because the election result was wrong, but because elections do not change the underlying economic architecture. They change the mood. And mood, without substance behind it, is temporary.
What actually moves the market
Economists across New Zealand's major banks and research houses are consistent on this point.
Macro-economic conditions — particularly interest rates, credit availability, and employment confidence are the primary drivers of housing performance. They consistently outweigh election-specific policy debate.
Interest rates influence borrowing power. Lending policy shapes accessibility. Employment confidence underpins buyer appetite. These fundamentals do not change on election night. They move on the Reserve Bank’s decisions, the inflation trajectory, and the broader global economic environment — none of which are determined by who wins in November.
As we move through the second half of 2026, those fundamentals are pulling in different directions. Annual inflation reached 4.1% in the June quarter, prompting the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to increase the Official Cash Rate to 2.50% and signal that further tightening may be required. At the same time, GDP returned to growth in the March quarter, food and fibre export earnings are forecast to reach a record NZ$64.3 billion, and international tourism continues to recover. Rather than pointing to either boom or contraction, these indicators suggest an economy working through an uneven but improving recovery.
No single indicator determines the direction of the property market. It is the interaction of monetary policy, inflation, employment, credit conditions, business confidence, and the broader global environment that ultimately shapes market performance.
For the remainder of 2026, the picture remains nuanced. Economic growth is gradually returning, food and fibre export earnings remain strong, and inflation is expected to moderate as recent energy-related price pressures unwind. At the same time, inflation remains above the Reserve Bank's target band, the labour market has softened, and the Official Cash Rate now sits at 2.50%, with the Reserve Bank signalling that further increases may be required if inflation proves more persistent than expected.
Taken together, these fundamentals point to a market that is likely to remain disciplined rather than exuberant. The election sits within that broader economic picture—it does not define it.
The psychology trap
Waiting feels like a decision. It is not. It is a postponement — and postponements carry their own risk.
Every month a property does not go to market is a month of carrying costs, opportunity cost, and exposure to the variables that actually move prices. If interest rates shift, if the global environment changes, if inventory increases in your area — none of those wait for your decision to be ready.
The buyers who are active right now are not waiting for the election. They are making decisions based on their financial position, their life stage, and their assessment of value. Serious, well-capitalised buyers — particularly at the premium end — do not pause their lives for a political cycle.
People with money and clarity of purpose do not wait for political permission. They pursue their property aspirations on their own terms and timeline.
The buyer's perspective
The same psychology affects buyers and the same logic applies.
Buyers who pause during election periods often assume they are being prudent. In reality, they are frequently stepping aside at exactly the moment when opportunity is greatest.
A quieter market is not a weaker market. It is a more navigable one — for buyers who are ready to move. Vendors who have been waiting are ready to act. Competition among buyers reduces. The conditions for a considered, well-negotiated acquisition are often better in a pre-election window than at any other point in the cycle.
For buyers seeking something specific — a coastal property, a lifestyle estate, a vineyard holding, or something that rarely surfaces publicly — the election period is not a reason to pause. It is a reason to be ready.
Off-market opportunities do not pause for political cycles. They emerge when vendors are ready. The buyers who are positioned to act — finance arranged, brief clear, and the right advisor alongside them — are the ones who secure them. Often before they ever reach the open market.
The right question to ask
Rather than asking — should I sell before or after the election, or should I wait to buy — a more useful question is: how might possible policy changes, tax settings, and market conditions affect my position over the next two to five years?
That shift in framing moves thinking from headlines to fundamentals.
For vendors: a change in government could affect capital gains considerations and investor policy — worth understanding now rather than reacting to after the fact.
For buyers — particularly those acquiring investment property or considering New Zealand from overseas — the OIO settings, lending policy, and any changes to the bright-line test are worth understanding before November, not after.
None of these are certain — under MMP, election policies rarely become law in their announced form. But they are worth understanding as context for your decision, not as reasons to panic or rush.
The honest answer
Whether you are selling or buying — if you are well prepared, well advised, and working with someone who understands both sides of the market — the election is not your most important variable. Your preparation is. Your strategy is. The quality of advice you are working with is.
A disciplined market rewards those things. It does not reward waiting for a political result that may or may not change the fundamentals that actually determine your outcome.
The vendors I work with who achieve the best results are not the ones who timed the market perfectly. They are the ones who prepared properly, engaged early, and executed with clarity. The buyers who secure the best properties are not the ones who waited for certainty. They are the ones who were ready when the moment arrived.
The election will come and go. The question is whether you have used the time between now and November to prepare — or whether you are still waiting to decide.
I work with vendors and buyers across Auckland and New Zealand — on market and off it. If you are considering either side of that conversation, I welcome a confidential discussion about what the current environment means for your specific situation.
Sources
Grey Lynn election cycle property analysis — Ryan Pellett, ryanpellett.co.nz
US home sales following presidential elections — U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and National Association of Realtors (NAR)
New Zealand monetary policy, inflation and economic outlook — Reserve Bank of New Zealand (OCR & Monetary Policy Statements), Statistics New Zealand (CPI, GDP, Labour Market), Reserve Bank of New Zealand
New Zealand food and fibre export outlook — Ministry for Primary Industries (Situation and Outlook for Primary Industries – SOPI 2026) MPI
New Zealand property market forecasts and commentary — BNZ, ANZ Property Focus
New Zealand election market sentiment — realestate.co.nz, Squirrel Mortgages, Property Noise NZ
Global election and property market analysis — Sotheby's International Realty, Churchill Mortgage, Bright MLS
Grey Lynn election cycle property analysis — Ryan Pellett, ryanpellett.co.nz
US home sales post-election data — Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and National Association of Realtors (NAR)
NZ 2026 property price forecasts — BNZ, ANZ Property Focus, Reserve Bank of New Zealand
NZ election market sentiment — realestate.co.nz, Squirrel Mortgages, Property Noise NZ
Global election and property market analysis — Sotheby's International Realty, Churchill Mortgage, Bright MLS
